Why a renewable gas target is critical to gas use decarbonisation

By Jordan McCollum, National Policy Manager, APGA

As advocates for the transition to renewable gases, we often talk about the ability to reach net zero gas in Australia by 2050. But what does reaching net zero gas actually mean?

Having come leaps and bounds in researching the production, transport, storage and utilisation of renewable gases like hydrogen and biomethane, we know that we have the tools necessary to achieve a net zero gas system domestically in Australia. However, the path ahead of us is still a little less clear.

Luckily, renewable gases aren’t the first new technology to embark on a gradual takeover of an existing market. Thanks to the experience of the motor vehicle, the internet, smart phones and even renewable electricity before them, the pathway of renewable gases to transition Australia’s gas supply chain to net zero gas isn’t as murky as one may think.

Like new technologies in the past, renewable gases are anticipated to follow what is referred to as diffusion of innovation theory. The theory observes that most new technologies will follow, at least approximately, a normal distribution s-curve when taking over an incumbent market –referred to as the diffusion of innovation curve. Approximations of the diffusion of innovation curve have been seen across most new technologies which have developed across the past century. With 20 per cent adoption by 2020 under the Renewable Energy Target (RET), this positions the renewable electricity industry on the curve to achieve net zero for the existing electricity market by 2050 (Figure 3). Whether by accident or design, targeting 20 per cent uptake played a role in putting renewable electricity firmly on the trajectory to full market takeover. The 20 per cent mark is well above the combined innovators (first 2.5 per cent of uptake) and early adopters (next 13.5 per cent of uptake). By ensuring uptake enters the early majority portion of the diffusion of innovation curve, the RET ensured that renewable electricity uptake would continue even after the target had been met.

Renewable gas advocates can take advantage of this knowledge to plan out the renewable gas diffusion of innovation curve required to achieve net zero gas by 2050. As per the electricity sector, targeting 90 per cent renewable gas production by 2050 will be considered equivalent to achieving net zero, and 2025 can be considered as a reasonable point in time to start targeted renewable gas development. The application of a diffusion of innovation curve between 2025 and 2050 can be seen in Figure 4. By following this renewable gas uptake trajectory, rather than a straight line or some other form of trajectory, diffusion of innovation theory suggests Australia should deliver net zero gas by 2050.

Now that we know that this is the trajectory that the renewable gas industry must meet to achieve net zero gas by 2050, the question that remains is – how do we get on this trajectory?

This is why a renewable gas target is so critical to gas use decarbonisation in Australia. A renewable gas target of 3.5 per cent by 2030 and 20 per cent by 2035 can ensure that renewable gas deployment develops beyond the innovators and early adopters phases of the diffusion of innovation curve prior to 2035. By doing to, renewable gas deployment will be on a trajectory which aligns with net zero gas by 2050.

By observing how new technologies diffuse into existing markets and how the RET ensured that this occurred in a timely manner, we have the opportunity to ensure that renewable gas deployment doesn’t follow the diffusion of innovation curve, but that a renewable gas target is set to align with achieving net zero by 2050.

This article featured in the May edition of The Australian Pipeliner. Access the digital copy of the magazine here.