And yet, by the end of 2013, only 49 wells had been drilled in the Eastern European country – a sharp contrast to the Marcellus shale play in Pennsylvania, where 4,969 wells were drilled in the same amount of time.
After three years of slow progress in Poland, large energy companies gradually shifted attention elsewhere.
At first glance, Poland’s huge amount of unconventional resources seem like a sure bet for success.
Experts agree that a single, but critical, factor is holding them back: thus far, Poland’s government has yet to develop a workable energy policy, and political pushback against fracking is creating an undesirable environment for operators.
Australia gets a green light
The United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) ranks Australia as the seventh in the world for technically recoverable shale gas resources.
However, while Australia may present a smaller market than China or Russia, it has the benefit of a more operator-friendly environment.
In fact, a study by the Economist Intelligence Unit shows that Australia may become the largest exporter of LNG by 2020.
Queensland alone has plans to drill more than 18,000 wells in the next 20 years, and is expected to produce 25.3 million tonnes of shale gas per year by 2020.
However, Australia is still in the early stages of the shale play manufacturing process and while the country’s geology appears to be adequate, more assessment is needed.
“That’s the risk of this industry,” says gathering and midstream market expert for T.D. Williamson Abdel Zellou, Ph.D., when speaking about the complex geology of shale plays.
“Even seven years after the beginning of the shale boom in the United States, we still see articles about whether reserves are accurate. There’s a lot of uncertainty.”
Perhaps more notable is the significant political progress – overall, the Australian government is very amenable to oil and gas development.
Western Australia (WA) is home to approximately one-fifth of the world’s shale gas reserves and is in the process of passing regulations to start commercial fracking in the region.
The WA government has stated that commercial production is five to ten years away.
Additionally, well assessments have yielded good results in the Cooper Basin.
The Cooper Basin has already attracted Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Statoil, Total, Hess and BG Group.
Learning from experienced markets
Australia’s next challenge will be to amass the infrastructure, expertise, and professional personnel needed for success.
Dr. Zellou says Australia, and other countries in the early stages of shale play development, can learn a lot about this from the market intelligence of the American shale industry.
Dr. Zellou stresses the need for Australian companies to get into a “˜manufacturing mindset’ and realise that it takes years of drilling and building infrastructure before a market can start producing.
He also suggests that companies involved in the U.S. shale process share their knowledge with operators in Australia.
Australian-based companies, like Santos and BHP Billiton, are investing heavily in U.S. shale plays in order to replicate their successes back home.
For example, the American oil and gas industry is currently embarking on a 12-year, $US890 billion investment in its own midstream and downstream infrastructure.
Australia can learn from the huge amount of planning, resources, and workers needed for this process.
As for professional personnel and expertise, Australia will face the same challenges that every shale-developing country is facing, that there is a shortage of worldwide oil and gas labour, especially in expert-level positions.
Positioned to succeed
So far, Australia is doing very well on the checklist for shale play success.
The country’s political environment looks promising and, as Poland found out, that can be the most difficult step for many nations.
Australia’s shale-friendly political environment and willingness to work with international companies will help put the country on the road to becoming one of the largest LNG exporters in the world.