Rather than one big pipeline system, US-based Cambridge Energy Research Associates’ view of how the gas pipeline infrastructure will evolve in SE Asia differs from that in the Trans-ASEAN gas pipeline (TAGP) proposal, a project agreed by the energy ministers of ASEAN (the Association of South East Asian Nations) at a meeting last summer. The TAGP proposal envisions an extensive pipeline network criss-crossing ASEAN, linking existing large sources of gas with distant load centres. CERA’s view of gas pipeline development in Southeast Asia is that it will consist of “more of the same”, with mostly-bilateral, but increasingly cross-border, contracts linking gas reserves with nearby load centres, namely the three basins of Thailand-Southern Vietnam, the Malaya Peninsula, and Java in Indonesia.
In contrast to assumptions implicit in the TAGP proposal, CERA believes that modest new gas reserves will be discovered near load centres. “Those looking to transport gas very long distances will be disappointed, as will those hoping to position themselves as large gas trading hubs” CERA’s recent report summarizes.
Last July, SE Asian energy ministers signed an agreement to develop the Trans-ASEAN gas pipeline (TAGP) linking supply with demand centres in Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines, Myanmar, Vietnam, and Thailand. Indonesia, with uncommitted gas reserves of more than 300Tcf, will play a pivotal role in supplying this regional gas grid, feedipg the network with about half its reserves, according to the proposal. However, critics of the plan, first proposed as a $15-billion project but later cut back, have said the scheme was more of a politically-driven idea than a sound economic and commercial plan.
