Outlook for Kazakhstan’s gas industry: good and bad

The pipelines were designed such that the needs of industry were met only in the cities and towns along the main pipeline routes, and the country imports much of the gas it consumes. The western region – where the main pipelines are – receives Kazakh, Russian, and Turkmen gas. The Aktyubinsk and Kostanai regions, in the north-west, receive gas from the Bukhara-Urals pipeline and from the Zhanazhol field. The most densely populated and industrialized southern region received gas from Uzbekistan, but shipments are irregular, costly, and do not cover demand.

The trunk pipelines in Kazakhstan are not linked, which prevents their use for transporting inexpensive gas produced in the western region of the country to the southern and northern regions. This is particularly a problem for consumers in the south, and in the city of Almaty. The dependence on Uzbek gas, which costs twice or three times as much as gas produced in the western region of Kazakhstan, has significantly narrowed the gas market in the region. Consumers in the Kostanai region are similarly dependent on imports of Russian gas.

The annual capacity of the trunk gas pipelines is 190 billion cum at present. The current system was built for three main areas – Central Asia, Orenburg-Novopskovsk, and Bukhara-Urals, and includes the Bukhara-Tashkent-Bishkek-Almaty pipeline that supplies Kazakhstan’s southern region. The main problem with the gas lines is that they have now reached a critical depreciation level, and must be rehabilitated or replaced. Modernization of the Central Asia gas pipeline is thus a priority for Kazakhstan: this pipeline provides the basis for a long-term agreement with Russias Gazprom for gas supplies from Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan to Russia, and on to Europe. The modernization of the pipeline will increase its capacity from 50 billion cum/yr to 90 billion cum/yr. Given the increase in the transport of Turkmen gas, Gazprom is also considering building a new pipeline.

The Soyuz and Orenburg-Novopskov pipelines – with two compressor stations – that pass through western Kazakhstan from the Orenburg gas-processing plant to the Alexandrov Gai compressor station in Russia, can handle up to 42 billion cum/yr, although in recent years they have been transporting 26-29 billion cum. A pipeline with capacity for 30 billion cum/yr will run from the Deryalyk compressor station in NW Turkmenistan through Kazakhstan to the Alexander Gai compressor station.

The Bukhara-Urals pipeline, originally intended to transport gas from Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan to Russia’s industrial regions, is now being more used to supply gas to the Aktyubinsk region in its place.

The Gazli-Shymkent-Bishkek-Almaty, Kartaly-Kostanai, and Uzen-Aktau gas pipelines are used to transport gas for the domestic market to the southern regions of Kazakhstan, and the Mangistau and Kostanai regions. The Gazli-Bishkek pipeline also provides transit for 500 million – 1 billion cum for consumers in Kyrgyzstan.

New lines

New pipelines are also being built. The opening ceremony for the Akshabulak-Kyzylorda pipeline in Kyzylorda was held in November, 2004: the 122.9-km pipeline, with a capacity of 205 million cum/yr, provides gas for consumers in Kyzylorda region.

New projects by TengizChevroil to increase oil production to 23 million tons will increase production of associated gas by 2010 to 14 billion cum/yr: the company is building a pipeline from refineries at the Tengiz field to the Kulsary compressor station along the Central Asia pipeline.

Agip KCO, which is developing the Kashagan field, also plans to build a gas pipeline with capacity for 9 billion cubic meters to the Central Asia pipeline system.

Aktobemunaigaz, controlled by China’s CNPC, will build a pipeline from the Zhanazhol field to the compressor station on the Bukhara-Urals pipeline.

The Ishim (Rudny)-Petropavlovsk-Kokshetau-Astana pipeline will be built under the program to develop the gas industry in Kazakhstan for 2004-2010. The 1216-km long pipeline will have a diameter in the range 32-40in, and will pass through Leninsk and Kyzylorda before connecting to the Gazli-Almaty pipeline. It will transport 5 billion cum/yr of gas, and will cost an estimated $850 million. The viability of the project, given its high cost, will depend on further research into the growthe of gas production in the Aktyubinsk region, and confirmation of reserves in the northern Aral region, as wel las on the forecasts concerning gas shipments to China from Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

The Trans-Caspian pipeline will traverse a 2,000-km long route from eastern Turkmenistan across the Caspian Sea at depths of 200-300m, and through Azerbaijan and Georgia to Erzurum in Turkey. The project will cost $2.5-$3 billion, and the first phase capacity will be 10 billion cum/yr; the second phase will increase this to 20 billion cum/yr, and the third phase will extend to 30 billion cum/yr. A number of complex problems are currently preventing this project from moving forward.

Capital investment in the 3900-km long Turkmenistan-Iran-Turkey-Europe gas pipeline, that will supply up to 30 billion cum/yr by 2010, is put at $7.6 billion. The pipeline project, supported by a group of European companies, will begin at the biggest field in eastern Turkmenistan (Shatylka) and will pass along the Caspian, and through northern Iran to the border with Turkey.

Distribution grid problems

Around 40% of the regional low- and medium-pressure pipeline grids, used to supply gas to end consumers with minimum losses and strict metering of gas sales, are about to fail. More than 26% of the equipment and pipelines have been in use for more than 35 years, while the normal operating life for steel pipe is 25 years. The pipelines are aging faster be-cause about 40% of them do not have protective coatings. Half of the gas regulation points and a third of the distribution points are also in need of repair or replacement.

Gas losses in the grid system are significantly above the standard losses of 3%-5% of gas: losses as high as 30% of the gas supplied have been reported, and the Zhambyl region has registered several major gas releases into the atmosphere due to the extremely poor condition of the pipelines.

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