The project aimed to demonstrate the capacity of a regionalised computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to inform the potential for the future role of hydrogen in a greenhouse gas emissions reduction strategy.
The report provides an overview of the initial capacity of this modelling system.
The four scenarios examined in this research are:
- A 60 per cent emission reduction on 2005 levels with more widespread use of electricity as a final fuel but no significant role for hydrogen; 60H
- A 60 per cent emission reduction on 2005 levels with the widespread use of electricity and the emergence of hydrogen—both green and blue—as a substantial part of the final energy mix;
- A 100 per cent emission reduction on 2005 levels that relies almost entirely on electrification to reduce energy emissions and little use of hydrogen;
- A 100 per cent emission reduction on 2005 levels with more widespread use of electricity and the emergence of hydrogen as a substantial part of the final energy mix.
Findings showed that attainment of net zero emissions in Australia by 2050 requires the extraction of massive amounts of carbon dioxide from the air.
Although some offsets are possible, this action becomes prohibitively expensive and direct extraction becomes necessary.
Extending current policy settings using hydrogen or electrification will require the government to pay for the extraction of around 160 million tonnes CO2 from the air.
Using optimistic assumptions, the research estimate that this will end up costing in the vicinity of $15.5 to $16.4 billion per annum.
The report concludes that the current policy framework favours the development of electrification as a decarbonisation pathway over hydrogen.
This potentially precludes. The substantial role that more timely large-scale development could play.
Click here to read the research summary.
To download the full report click here.