By Jordan McCollum, National Policy Manager, APGA,
APGA National Policy Manager Jordan McCollum discusses the recent IPCC Assessment Report on the Mitigation of Climate Change.
We have the tools, electrify everything: this is the catchcry of many energy decarbonisation advocates. But the scientists at the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) disagree. The science is in – and electrify everything is out.
The recent IPCC Assessment Report on the Mitigation of Climate Change indicates that far from electrifying everything, a diverse and interconnected energy system is needed to limit global warming 1.5°.
As the preeminent international authority on climate change, the IPCC regularly assess and reports on mitigating climate change. Chapter six of the most recent Sixth Assessment Report goes into detail about how the global energy system is anticipated to change across four net zero emission scenarios.
Not one of the IPCC scenarios proposes 100 per cent electrification of energy demand for any sector.
In fact, IPCC scientists anticipate that electricity use will account for less than 50 per cent of final energy use on average in 2050. Far from being an absolute conclusion, this average sits amongst a range that spans from 30 per cent to 64 per cent of final energy demand across all four scenarios. Not even residential and commercial energy demand is anticipated to fully electrify in IPCC net zero scenarios.
Counter to much public commentary, the IPCC also sees a substantial quantity of natural gas remaining in net zero 2050 scenarios. While on average gas use declines to half that of today, IPCC uncertainty on gas use is substantial, with scenario outcomes ranging from 10 per cent to 115 per cent of current natural gas demand in a net zero energy future.
This large natural gas use appears to stem from lower-than-expected estimates of hydrogen utilisation and virtually no mention of biogas or biomethane. This is despite the European Union targeting 35 billion cubic metres of biomethane supply and 20MT of hydrogen supply by 2030.
The IPCC’s conclusions follow in the footsteps of the 2021 International Energy Agency (IEA) Net Zero Emissions Roadmap which clearly depicted a net zero energy system with a diverse array of no- and low- emissions energy sources.
The IPCC could foreseeably transition to even lower levels of fossil fuels with greater consideration for renewable gases as was seen in the 2021 IEA report which identified renewable gases as the backstop to possible shortcomings of a future carbon capture and storage industry.
Time and time again, when the international climate and energy scientists project pathways to achieving net zero emission ambitions, the conclusions far from advocate for electrifying everything.
Instead, international climate and energy scientists advocate for measured action to create resilient energy systems which are supported by a diverse combination of energy sources.
Much like the resilience of today’s energy system has been secured by a diverse combination of energy sources, the net zero energy system of tomorrow will also need a breadth of supply options to be resilient. Yes, the science is in – and electrify everything is out.
Reference
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate Change 2022 Mitigation of Climate Change (Assessment Report 6) available at https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_FullReport.pdf
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