It’s expected that the last day of sitting for this session of Parliament is 24 June 2010 and the election will be held in September or October. Of course, that’s expectation – in politics just about anything can happen.
What, you ask, does this have to do with our industry? Perhaps a little more than you might expect…
Although APIA’s Secretariat is located in Canberra, in my five years with APIA, only two major APIA events have been held here – the first Young Pipeliners Forum seminar in 2006 and the Research and Standards Committee’s Joint Technical Meeting in 2007. So, for APIA members, Canberra is “˜neutral’ territory for organising the many functions around the nation.
But, APIA’s location in Canberra is much more than that. If APIA is to influence policy developed by politicians and bureaucrats, we need to be at the location where those policies are generated and refined. Genuine influence on government policy is less successful if industries wait for announcements – and then make a lot of noise. Genuine influence occurs in the bowels of the bureaucracy, where effective industry associations quietly work with the middle-level bureaucrats who are developing the details of policies that the government wants to introduce. At the top level – with the politicians and the leading bureaucrats – industry associations can often influence the direction of the policies before they are developed. This is the benefit of discussions between politicians and the APIA Secretariat, supported by further reinforcement through discussions politicians might have with the APIA Board and the Owners Committee. Of course, if something gets through this system and needs to be wound back, that’s when more noise is made in the media and more pressure is placed on the politicians to change their minds.
In an election year it is difficult to get good policy from governments – they’re too busy trying to appeal to the general public’s short-term interests, rather than long-term economic policies for the whole nation. Uncertainty in energy investments can impact on our industry. An election year can prompt unhelpful political decisions for all industries. The debate about a tax on resources, generating uncertainty in investment in the coal seam gas industry, will impact on the gas transmission industry. The scrapping of the Federal Government’s emissions trading scheme- the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme- has also caused some uncertainty in investment in gas-fired power generation, which will impact on gas transmission. Our arguments about any negative impact of the Short Term Trading Market (STTM) on our industry will fall on deaf Government ears when, in an election year, the STTM can be described as helping to reduce gas prices – simplistic, yes; politically effective, also yes.
Finally, the timing of the election could have an impact on the APIA Annual Convention and Exhibition. We currently have two federal politicians – one Labor and one Liberal – who have committed to participate in our Convention. Western Australian Senator Mathias Cormann has agreed to open our Exhibition on Sunday 12 September. Also, Federal Minister for Resources and Energy Martin Ferguson has accepted our invitation to formally open the Convention Business Session on Monday 13 September. If the election is called for September or October, both these men will be campaigning. In an election campaign, their schedule is run from campaign headquarters – and we may or may not be part of the broader plan.
On the positive side, Darwin is located in the electorate of Solomon. It’s a very marginal seat and the energy industry is very important in that marginal seat. It’s quite possible that the political powers in the campaign will insist that these influential politicians make public appearances during the campaign, and our Annual Convention is a very good venue for them to do just that. As I mentioned, anything is possible in politics during an election year!