Last week, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) published its 2025 gas statement of opportunities, identifying shortfall risks in southern Australia from 2028 – a noticeable revision from its previous 2025 projection.
AEMO pointed to expected falls in national consumption of gas, and the delayed retirement of Eraring power station (reducing forecast gas-powered generation of electricity while it remains online) as primary reasons for the revision.
The report also highlighted the need for new gas to fill potential supply gaps beyond 2028, as production falls faster than consumption.
“From 2028, seasonal supply gaps may emerge in southern Australia if conditions lead to sustained high gas usage, while expanded production of uncertain supply will be needed to meet domestic and export positions in northern Australia,” the report said.
“In 2029 and later … annual supply gaps are forecast meaning a structural need for new gas supply beyond developments classified as committed and anticipated is necessary.”
APA Group welcomed the report, but said it underscores the importance of unlocking new domestic gas supply and continued investment in its own east coast gas grid expansion plan in order to avoid higher cost LNG imports.
“APA’s recently announced infrastructure expansion plan will deliver new transport capacity in stages, with projects to be delivered as needed by the energy market to meet demand and keep costs lower for consumers,” APA said.
“Projects to add new transport capacity over the coming years – including the transition of the Moomba to Sydney Ethane Pipeline to natural gas, to be delivered this year – are underway and have been well supported by customers.
“The extension of Longford, coupled with the staged ongoing expansion of APA’s existing pipeline network, shows Australia won’t need to import higher cost LNG during the period modelled by AEMO. We know LNG imports will undermine domestic energy security and expose Australia’s energy market to global supply chains and prices.
“Australia has an abundance of domestic gas available to meet east coast demand, and these recent announcements are confirmation of this. Going forward, government and regulators need to focus on policy certainty and ensuring other new gas developments are prioritised to allow the gas sector to deliver the best outcome for Australians.”
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