The Australian Domestic Gas Outlook conference brings together the who’s who of the industry, with the aim of shaping the future of gas in Australia.
As the Australian gas sector enters uncharted waters, a national conference will bring stakeholders together to set a course for success.
Australia has a number of major gas infrastructure initiatives in the works, including new gas import terminals, pipeline expansions and new pipelines.
With gas supply issues high on the agenda, calls have been made for less market intervention from the government to encourage greater investment in gas infrastructure and supply.
Entering uncharted waters
The latest annual east coast report from independent energy consultancy EnergyQuest, East Coast Gas Outlook 2024, found that the outlook for east coast gas is now entering ‘uncharted waters’.
“EnergyQuest has been forecasting gas supply shortfalls in the east coast market for several years now, the East Coast Gas Outlook sets out in detail the extent of the problem,” EnergyQuest CEO Rick Wilson said.
“Gas supply shortfalls are expected for the east coast and Northern Territory (NT) market as soon as 2026, and with increasing certainty and impact from 2028.”
EnergyQuest’s new report has found that future gas supply issues are even more acute when the seasonal winter peaks of Victoria and NSW are considered.
The consultancy firm predicts that by 2034, LNG imports will be needed to supply more than half of demand in the southern region (NSW/ACT, Victoria, South Australia, and Tasmania).
“Pipeline expansions, storage additions and development of reserves will add to supply, but over the medium to longer term, after when the first gas shortfalls are expected,” Wilkinson said.
Wilkinson said that only an LNG import terminal can add up to 500 terajoules per gas day (TJ/d) of swing capacity and up to 100 petajoules (Pj/a) – which is 20 per cent of the east coast/NT demand – by winter 2026.
“Gas prices are forecast to increase. The projects which add supply will mitigate the high side potential for price increases, and ensure that there will be gas available if required,” he said.
“Gas will not become cheaper from today’s levels.”
The EnergyQuest CEO said the critical factor is potential market intervention again by the government, and price caps.
“This was done in 2022, but didn’t address the market fundamentals of not enough gas supply to meet demand.
“Intervention and price caps take away the incentives to invest in projects which meet seasonal and peak demand days.”
Setting a course
The Australian Domestic Gas Outlook (ADGO) conference will take place from 31 March to 3 April 2025 at the Sheraton Grand Sydney Hyde Park.
The event will give those in the industry an opportunity to engage with and hear from senior leaders from the length of the gas value chain, including gas producers, pipeline operators, retailers, end-users, regulators and policymakers.
The 2025 edition marks the 12th year of the event, and will play a central role in setting a course for the industry moving forward.
Regal Funds Management’s Senior Energy Analyst James Hood said he is looking forward to the event which comes at an important time for Australia’s gas industry.
“I am very much looking forward to ADGO,” he said.
“I’d like to see industry participants at the conference step up to the plate more and proudly own the fact that they are gas producers.
“You do need to have a social licence to operate, meaning that you need to operate in a safe manner, you need to take ownership of your remediation liabilities, and you need to mitigate your scope 1 and 2 emissions for major facilities by spending money on energy efficiency.
“But regardless of political posturing to garner votes, both sides of Federal parliament understand that the gas industry is a critical element of Australia’s economy.”
The east coast gas market is in a fragile state at the moment, according to Hood, who welcomed existing and planned gas initiatives in the region.
“There are a few gas initiatives in place, like the Kurri Kurri gas peaker owned by Snowy Hydro, APA’s compression expansion of the SWQLD pipeline and MSP pipeline, and Twiggy Forrest’s Port Kembla gas import terminal,” he said.
He also highlighted the Hunter pipeline, now owned by Santos, and the Narrabri gas project, both of which are seeking regulatory approval.
Hood explained most industry participants think that gas peakers will be required to meet the increasing volatility of the ‘duck curve’ in the National Energy Market (NEM) and South West Interconnected System (SWIS), and these gas peakers will be used to support intermittent renewable energy and take advantage of energy arbitrage.
“So having Kurri Kurri in the system should be a good thing,” he said.
“I think APA’s compression expansion is needed to be able to move more gas from Queensland to the Southern States during peak winter periods; so that is also a good thing but won’t solve the problem fully in my view.”
Gas will not become cheaper for Australian consumers, residential or industrial, with the current initiatives in place, Hood said.
“When I was doing Economics 101 at university, I was always taught that, ceteris paribus, price comes down by either increasing supply or decreasing demand.
“So, you either assist the exploration and production entities to bring on new upstream supply quicker, or you destroy demand by shutting down industrial facilities who are reliant on gas inputs – and if it’s the latter, then that results in the loss of hundreds or thousands of industrial jobs often in more regional locations for hard working Australians.
“Price doesn’t come down by regulating the market with a band-aid price cap, and then providing an exemption to almost every single upstream producer to that price cap anyway.”
The regulatory landscape in Australia for bringing upstream gas projects to market is getting longer and more burdensome.
“Additionally, it seems like some activists are weaponising the regulatory framework in Australia to postpone bringing projects to markets, which ends up in higher gas prices for mums and dads,” Hood said.
“The regulatory framework is in part complicated by the fact that there are both federal and state-by-state policies for gas, which makes it more difficult to bring consistent policy to the whole east coast of Australia.”
The ADGO conference is a key moment in Quest Events’ calendar for 2025. Quest Events is a fast-growing business information and networking event provider, producing timely and relevant conferences, exhibitions and training seminars for industry and government participants alike.
For more information, visit the ADGO or Quest website.
This feature also appears in the January edition of The Australian Pipeliner.
