APGA Corporate Affairs Manager Paul Purcell highlights how there’s a quiet truth about Australia’s transition that many people know, but it isn’t often said.
The journey to net zero will be hard.
In fact, it is likely to be the most significant engineering and industrial challenge of our lifetimes – requiring trillions of dollars in capital, unimaginable labour deployment, and above all, fit-for-purpose policy frameworks in domestic and international markets.
But the reality is, governments and industry cannot achieve net zero without the Australian community.
Today, Australians broadly support the transition – and recognise its necessity. We have a moral imperative to limit global warming. But the lines between populism and pragmatism are blurring.
That is the greatest danger to successfully reaching a carbon-neutral world as quickly as possible.
The road to net zero is littered with potholes and speedbumps. It’s not straight, or simple but the ultimate destination is vital. There are many major challenges, including delayed rollout of renewable assets and transmission infrastructure, lack of long-duration storage, and unreliable coal generation.
If we accelerate without carefully navigating these speedbumps, the jolt – felt through systems affordability, reliability, and sustainability – could knock the wheels of the transition entirely off.
Once an issue loses popular support, it’s nearly impossible to get it back which is why gas infrastructure is so important to ensure the well-being of the energy transition today, and for the foreseeable future.
Through APGA’s advocacy program, we track public sentiment to better understand how Australians feel about major energy issues so we can tailor our policy approach to align with community expectations.
It would come as no surprise that cost of living is the greatest issue felt by Australians today.
The cost of energy is an important driver, and in the aggregate, ensuring Australians have affordable, decarbonised, and reliable energy must continue to be the three pillars of domestic energy policy.
Emissions reduction is vitally important, but it is just one of three elements in the energy trilemma. It sounds like industry speak but the effect of unbalanced policy ultimately flows through to the community.
In the latest analysis conducted by Redbridge, we examine the role of affordability, sustainability, and reliability in determining how people genuinely feel about the energy transition.
First, reliability. Let’s look at Victoria – which according to the Australian Energy Market Operator has the highest risk of energy shortfalls in the coming years. The research shows Victorians are not confident about their state’s energy grid.
80 per cent of Victorians are very or somewhat concerned about the state of the local electricity grid, and in the priority of needs, reliability of electricity almost always ranks above rapid decarbonisation.
Simply, Victorians want to reduce emissions but not at the expense of blackouts.
This is the first lead indicator that illustrates why sentiment about the role of natural gas has improved rapidly over the past six months, with opposition to new gas projects now down to just 11 per cent.
We observe that Australians increasingly understand the role gas will play as a safety blanket, and how it works in tandem with renewables to displace coal and ensure reliable, low-carbon electricity.
Next, we examine the cost.
It is abundantly clear that Australians now strongly reject the proposition that energy will be cheaper as the country continues to transition to net zero – with just 12 per cent thinking this statement is true.
Alarmingly, more than 50 per cent of mortgage holders in Melbourne and Sydney are now cash-flow negative, which means they are spending more on their day-to-day expenses than they have monies coming in.
This dire financial situation is indicative of the broader economic pressures Australians are facing, including the rising cost of energy.
As they are forced to rely on credit cards, savings, or loans from family and friends, the financial strain becomes a significant barrier to supporting broader societal initiatives like the energy transition.
This brings into sharp focus the need for energy policies that consider the economic realities of everyday Australians. The government and industry must innovate not only in technology but also in financial mechanisms, ensuring that the transition to net zero does not exacerbate economic inequalities.
Public education and engagement are crucial. There’s a need for a clear, transparent dialogue about the costs involved in the transition and how they will be managed. Without widespread understanding and support, the transition risks being perceived as another financial burden rather than a necessary step towards a sustainable future.
The transition to net zero in Australia is not just a technological or policy challenge but also a social and economic one. The journey must be navigated with a keen understanding of the complex web of factors impacting the Australian community. Only through a balanced approach that addresses reliability, affordability, and sustainability in tandem, can the transition maintain the support needed for success.
This article featured in the January edition of The Australian Pipeliner.
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