New research is forecasting CSG production in Australia to decline 60 per cent over the next 10 years.
Research produced by Rystad Energy indicates that, based on the remaining proved and probable (2P) reserves and well numbers, production could drop significantly over the next decade, with new projects and exploration expected to offset only 30 per cent of this.
Rystad’s forecast also assumed there would be no additional 2P reserve write downs, an assumption the group called “optimistic” given recent trends and said the only long-term solution would be to find and develop new resources.
Rystad Upstream Senior Analyst Daniel Levy said the outlook was not positive.
“For an LNG export industry already struggling to fill facilities, an additional 30 per cent reduction in feed gas would be disastrous, causing multiple trains to be taken offline,” he said.
“In multiple cases, we have observed that in order to deplete 2P reserves, operators will need to decrease well spacing while moving out from their core acreage without significant drops in well productivity.
“This is an unlikely scenario given the underwhelming rate of improvement in technology and well productivity observed over the past decade.”
Rystad hypothesised export volumes from Australia’s east coast LNG projects will experience major drops from 2026 and some trains will be closed by about 2028.
Rystad is headquartered in Oslo, Norway, with a presence in a number of major cities around the world including Sydney.
For more information visit the Rystad website.
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